Environment

IMD says southwest monsoon will reach Kerala on June 6

- by Sayoni
  1. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the southwest monsoon would be arrive in Kerala on June 6. The normal onset date is June 1.
  2. The prediction is in line with that of private weather forecaster Skymet’s which has said that the 2019 monsoon would arrive in Kerala on June 4 and make a sluggish progress thereafter due to the influence of El Nino-  the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific.
  3. The IMD uses a customised weather model to forecast the arrival of southwest monsoon in India. The model has a built-in error margin of four days.
  4. The model is based on 6 meteorological parameters viz. a) the minimum temperatures over northwest India; b) the pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; c) the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea; d) the lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean; e) the upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean; and f) the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the southwest Pacific region.
  5. The IMD had earlier said monsoon rains are expected to be normal in 2019- 96% of the Long-term average (LPA). The IMD defines normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA). LPA (50year average) of monsoon rains in India is 89 cm.
  6. The IMD issues operational forecast for the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June.
  7. These forecasts are prepared using state-of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system (SEFS) and using the dynamical coupled Ocean-Atmosphere global Climate Forecasting System (CFS) model developed under Monsoon Mission of the Ministry of Earth Sciences. The dynamic model is known as Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS)
  8. In 2012, National Monsoon Mission was launched with aim to develop a state-of-the-art dynamical prediction system for monsoon rainfall on different time scales.

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