The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has
said that the southwest monsoon would be arrive in Kerala on June 6. The normal
onset date is June 1.
The prediction is in line with that of private
weather forecaster Skymet’s which has said that the 2019 monsoon would arrive
in Kerala on June 4 and make a sluggish progress thereafter due to the
influence of El Nino- the large-scale
ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea
surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific.
The IMD uses a customised weather model to
forecast the arrival of southwest monsoon in India. The model has a built-in
error margin of four days.
The model is based on 6 meteorological
parameters viz. a) the minimum temperatures over northwest India; b) the
pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; c) the outgoing long-wave
radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea; d) the lower tropospheric zonal wind
over southeast Indian Ocean; e) the upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east
equatorial Indian Ocean; and f) the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the
southwest Pacific region.
The IMD had earlier said monsoon rains are
expected to be normal in 2019- 96% of the Long-term average (LPA). The IMD
defines normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of the Long Period Average
(LPA). LPA (50year average) of monsoon rains in India is 89 cm.
The IMD issues operational forecast for the
southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall for the country as a
whole in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second
stage forecast is issued in June.
These forecasts are prepared using
state-of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system (SEFS) and using the
dynamical coupled Ocean-Atmosphere global Climate Forecasting System (CFS)
model developed under Monsoon Mission of the Ministry of Earth Sciences. The
dynamic model is known as Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS)
In 2012, National Monsoon Mission was launched with
aim to develop a state-of-the-art dynamical prediction system for monsoon
rainfall on different time scales.
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