Private weather forecaster Skymet has said that
it expects the 2019 monsoon to arrive in Kerala on June 4 and make a sluggish
progress thereafter. It has warned that the monsoon would begin under the
influence of the El Niño, which is likely to have its impact on the rainfall.
According to the agency, all the four regions
viz. central India, east and north-eastern states, southern peninsula and
north-west India will witness less than normal rainfall. Central India is
expected to see the lowest rainfall in the region with seasonal rains at 91% of
its Long Period Average.
Normal’ rainfall is defined as 96%-104% of the
long period average (LPA), with a model error of plus or minus 5%. The LPA is
the weighted average of rainfall that India received in June-September from
1951 to 2000 and is pegged at 89 cm.
El Nino refers to the large-scale
ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea
surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific. It
is the periodic development of a warm ocean current along the coast of Peru as
a temporary replacement of the cold Peruvian current.
A strong El Nino results in reduction and uneven
distribution of rainfall across the Indian sub-continent. This is because the
trade winds coming from South America which normally blow westward towards Asia
during Southwest Monsoon gets weakened due to the warming of the Pacific Ocean.
Therefore, moisture and heat content gets limited and this leads to poor
rainfall in the region.
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