The Economic Survey which is usually presented a day before the annual Union Budget has been tabled in Parliament.
Economic Survey is an assessment documents that presents a picture of the Economic Landscape of the country.The Economic Survey is presented by the Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India.
The theme of the Economic Survey 2019 is about enabling a “shifting of gears” to sustained economic growth for objective of $5 trillion by 2024-25.
The economic survey says that GDP growth in the country has averaged 7.5% over the past five years.The survey has predicted 7% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in FY-20 on stable macroeconomic conditions.
The survey provisionally estimates 2.9% growth rate for agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors in FY20.It sees fiscal deficit of centre and states combined at 5.8% in FY19 versus 6.4% in FY18.
The survey has said that to achieve the vision of $5 trillion economy by 2024,India needs to shift its gears to accelerate and sustain a real GDP growth rate of 8%.
The growth is achievable through investment especially private investment.It said that Investment is the key driver of simultaneous growth in demand,jobs,exports & productivity.
The survey also talks about the virtuous cycle of savings,investment and exports supported by a favorable demographic phase is required for sustainable growth.
The Survey added that the accommodative stance of the Reserve Bank of India(RBI) will help to reduce real lending rates in the financial sector.
The Survey also expects that the decline in non-performing assets (NPA) will lead to capital formation.
The Survey expects the oil prices to decline in 2019-20 which in turn, would push consumption in the economy.However,it does not rule out the possibility of an upward pressure due to rising global growth which can impact the government’s fiscal math.
The Survey has said that increased uncertainty over trade tensions and lower global growth could hit exports and suggested that an aggressive export strategy must be part of investment-driven model.
The survey has said that rural wages growth which was declining seems to have bottomed out and has started to increase since mid-2018.It said that the pick up in food prices should help in increasing rural incomes and spending capacity.
The survey has warned that prospects of export growth remained weak for 2019-20 if status quo is maintained.However,it said that reorientation of export policies to target countries/markets based on our own relative comparative advantage and the importing country’s exposure to Indian goods can foster export performance.
The Survey stressed on the importance of supporting dwarf or smaller firms to create jobs.The survey has proposed complete overhaul of minimum wages in India.It has also proposed to increase the retirement age.