India’s population may peak by 2047: Lancet

News:  Lancet has released a study on world population trends in 195 countries.


  • The study was conducted by the researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation(IHME).
  • The researchers used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
    • The Global Burden of Disease Study is a comprehensive regional and global assessment of mortality and disability from major diseases, injuries and risk factors.

Key Takeaways:

  • World Population: World population will peak in 2064 at 9.73 billion. This is 36 years earlier than the 11 billion peak projected for 2100 by the UN World Population Prospects report 2019.
  • Total Fertility Rate(TFR): Global total fertility rate(TFR) which indicates the average number of children expected to be born to a woman during her reproductive span of 15-49 years is predicted to steadily decline from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100.
  • Most Populated in 2100: The five largest countries in 2100 (are projected) to be India, Nigeria, China, the U.S and Pakistan.

India Specific Data: